Category Archives: Domonique Flowers

Slate Endorsements Are Major Factor in BOE Elections

This post originally appeared on the Prince George’s County Advocates for Better blog. I am posting it here as well, as the topic is highly relevant to this blog.

How do you know which candidate is most likely to win a Prince George’s County Board of Education race? As with any election, there are many factors at play. Some aspects of the candidates and races may be too difficult to analyze objectively, such as the quality of the candidates’ ideas, campaign skills, and personal effort put into campaign activities. However, many important factors affecting the campaigns are quantifiable and easily compared.

In order to determine what factor has the greatest impact on the election results, I set out to analyze the 2014 BOE races in Prince George’s County. Based on my knowledge about our elections, I identified the following four factors as major potential contributing factors to a candidate’s success:

  • Incumbency
  • Fundraising
  • Democratic Party slate endorsement
  • Other endorsements (local media, county teachers union)

To refresh everyone’s memory, here are the general election results for the four BOE elections held in 2014:

* Election winner

And this is how the analysis of the four major factors came out:

* Williams was appointed to the District 9 seat less than a year before the election
** Includes endorsements by the Washington Post, Gazette, and Prince George’s County Educators’ Association

To better identify the factor that appears to have the greatest impact on the election results, the following color-coded table indicates the factors where each candidate had a clear advantage (green), disadvantage (red), or the candidates were somewhat equal (yellow).makila_boe_table3

Determining which analyzed factor best correlates with the election results is not very difficult.

Election results: Maryland State Board of Elections, 2014 Official General Election Results,
Fundraising: Maryland State Board of Elections, Maryland Campaign Reporting Information System,
Democratic slate endorsements: For example,
Washington Post endorsements:
Gazette endorsements:
Prince George’s County Educators’ Association endorsements:

I Was Right

Prince George’s County Council’s proposal to extend term limits for its own members and the County Executive is pulling me back to this blog after a summer hiatus. But, before I get to that topic, I feel the need to gloat a bit about my District 9 Board of Education primary race prediction.

Once we knew that Sonya Williams was going to be the chosen candidate of the incumbent elected officials and her name was going to appear on the “sample ballot” advertisements being mailed to District 9 voters, I knew the BOE primary race was over. These June primary election results, as reported by the Maryland State Board of Elections, prove I was right:

  • Sonya Williams: 5,383 votes (42.3%)
  • Domonique Flowers: 4,502 votes (35.4%)
  • Denise Joseph: 1,826 votes (14.4%)
  • Johnnie Isaac: 1,010 (7.9%)

For me, the only surprise was that the race was as close as it was. I know that Mr. Flowers had prepared for his campaign for a long time and worked very hard, and that obviously shows in the results. But it still wasn’t enough to overcome the advantage provided by incumbent endorsements and their sample ballots.

It is important to note that this BOE race is not over. The top two vote getters from the primary—Williams and Flowers—will appear on the November general election ballot. When it comes to that election, I will stick with my prediction: Incumbent support and those sample ballots will carry Williams to victory.

BOE District 9 Endorsements Making Race Interesting

Now that we are getting closer to the June 24 primary, endorsements in the District 9 Board of Education race are starting to happen. A few days ago the Gazette endorsed Domonique Flowers. Not surprisingly, County Executive Rushern Baker is backing Sonya Williams, whom Baker appointed to the BOE in December.

The fact that all of the endorsements are not going to one candidate makes the District 9 race more interesting. My firm belief continues to be that whichever candidate gets the endorsement of our local incumbents will prevail in the June primary and November’s general election.

Table Is Set for BOE District 9 Race

Now that the February 25, 2014 filing deadline for candidacy has passed, we also know who will be running for the Prince George’s County District 9 Board of Education seat. According to the Maryland Board of Elections website, we have the following four candidates for the District 9 BOE race:

  • Domonique Flowers
  • Johnnie Isaac
  • Denise Joseph
  • Sonya Williams

Williams will be the incumbent in the race since she was appointed to the BOE seat in December by County Executive Baker.

On this blog, I follow this BOE race for one reason. I want to find out if my thesis regarding incumbent slate endorsements holds true. As I have stated before, I am convinced that the candidate who receives the endorsement of the local incumbent politicians and their slate will prevail