I want to be the first person to call the Prince George’s County District 9 Board of Education race that will take place in the 2014 election cycle. I thought I would have some time to make this prediction, but the surprising announcement from Donna Hathaway-Beck that she is resigning from her seat effective September 6, 2013 forced my hand. I want to get my prediction out before County Executive Baker announces his pick to fill Mrs. Hathaway-Beck’s remaining term.

Naturally, the resignation of Mrs. Hathaway-Beck has the potential to influence the race to replace her. I had heard from reliable sources that she was not going to run again, so I was expecting there would be an open seat for us District 9 voters to fill in the 2014 election. With an open seat, none of the potential candidates would have the benefits of incumbency̶—which are always significant. Now with the resignation, this dynamic can change. Whoever is appointed by the County Executive to the seat until the election will have at least some of the benefits of an incumbent. Of course, we don’t know if the person appointed to the seat will actually run in the 2014 election, but it is certainly possible.

Despite this new twist in the coming District 9 BOE race, I am very comfortable making my prediction: The person elected in 2014 will be the person who is endorsed by the slate consisting of our local incumbent officeholders (Senator Mike Miller, Delegate James Proctor, Councilman Mel Franklin, and possibly others). We don’t know the name of the person at this time, but we will surely know it before the June primary election.

This prediction also leads to my practical advice to anyone considering a run for the District 9 BOE seat. Don’t worry too much about putting together a formidable election campaign. Your time and effort will be much better spent trying to curry favor with the local incumbents.